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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."