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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.